Samsung, SK Hynix expect chip prices to stay firm in 2024

Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., the world’s two largest memory chip makers, forecast the prices of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to stay firm this year thanks to rising demand for high-performance chips, essential for artificial intelligence applications.

To meet the demand, they have converted more than 20% of their DRAM production lines into those for HBM.

Accordingly, DRAM output will dwindle in line with demand, according to the two companies during an investor relations conference hosted by Samsung Securities on May 9-10. 

During the IR event, the two South Korean chipmakers were bombarded with questions about their backlog of orders. Particularly, attendees wished to confirm SK Hynix’s recent remarks about its HBM supply orders, according to industry sources.

Last week, SK Hynix Chief Executive Kwak Noh-jung said at a press conference that in terms of production, its HBM chips have already sold out for this year and are almost sold out for 2025.

An SK official told institutional investors that it supplies HBM chips in binding contracts on an annual basis. The contracts specify supply volumes, payment methods and deadlines.

“Based on production capacity as of the end of this year, all of our production scheduled for next year has been booked,” he said.

HBM3E PRICE RISE

Eight-layer HBM3E makes up the bulk of its orders to Nvidia, its major customer.

“A price fall in HBM3 will be offset by the rise in HBM3E prices. Thus, we’ll be able to maintain margins at the current level,” he said.

Samsung Electronics said its HBM output has also sold out.

“Considering the supply and demand conditions, HBM will not be in oversupply in 2025,” said a Samsung Electronics IR official.

The Samsung official noted the company has narrowed the gap with SK Hynix for eight-layer HBM3E chips, while leading the 12-layer HBM3E market.

Samsung plans to start making 12-layer HBM3E chips as early as the second quarter.

HBM3E is the fifth-generation of the high-performance, high-capacity chip, or the extended version of the HBM3 chip. Regarding HBM4, Samsung will develop the sixth-generation HBM next year for mass production in 2026.

Starting with HBM4, Samsung will employ hybrid bonding, which directly connects the top and bottom of DRAM with copper.

STEADY PRICES OF DRAM, SSD

The two companies also gave an upbeat price outlook for the legacy DRAM and solid-state drives, a type of storage device in computers.

"I don't think DRAM prices will fall this year," the Samsung official said. "The increase in SSD demand is a long-term trend, not a short-term trend."

Write to Jeong-Soo Hwang at hjs@hankyung.com

Yeonhee Kim edited this article