S.Korea forecast to have world's oldest population by 2070

South Korea is expected to become the world’s most elderly country with about half of its population aged 65 or older by 2070, the government forecasts, adding to concerns that Asia’s fourth-largest economy may lose steam in the long term.

The country’s population is predicted to fall 27.1% to 37.7 million in 2070 from 51.6 million this year, according to a Statistics Korea report on Monday. In addition, the population structure is likely to deteriorate as the population of those 65 or over – the definition of elderly – may exceed the working-age population, or those between 15 and 64 years old.

Elderly people are forecast to make up 46.4% of the total population in 2070, more than double the 17.5% this year, while the productive population is expected to account for 46.1%, far lower than 71%.

As a result, the old-age dependency ratio, the number of individuals aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age, is likely to jump to 100.6 from 24.6 during the period. The dependency ratio, the number of dependents including the number of the elderly population and the number of dependents aged one to 14, is expected to stand at 116.8.

WORLD’S OLDEST POPULATION RATIO

The elderly population ratio of 46.4% in 2070 would be one of the world’s highest levels as only Saint Barthelemy, a French-speaking Caribbean island nation popular among retirees, is expected to see a similar elderly population ratio of 45.6%.

The ratios of Japan and China are predicted to rise to 38.7% and 36.9% by 2070, respectively from 29.9% and 13.7% this year. The US and German’s ratios of old people are forecast to grow to 27.5% and 32.2%, respectively, from 17.1% and 22.4%.

The elderly population ratio usually rises when the birth rate and immigration are low.

China’s elderly population ratio is likely to surge more than others as the total population is predicted to fall to 1.1 billion in 2070 from 1.4 billion with the total fertility rate seen down to 1.2 this year from 6.1 in 1970. On the other hand, the US population is expected to rise to 380 million in 2070 from 338 million this year on growing immigrants although the fertility rate is likely to stay around 1.7.

India is expected to become the most populous country worldwide with 1.7 billion people in 2070, given the falling population in China. Africa’s population is forecast to more than double to 3.2 billion in 2070 from the current 1.4 billion. The region may become the continent with the youngest population with the elderly ratio expected to be a mere 8.3 by then.

Write to Jung-hwan Hwang and Jin-gyu Kang at jung@hankyung.com
Jongwoo Cheon edited this article.