US emerges key to Korea’s nuclear power plants exports to Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, which is seeking to build two 1.4 gigawatts (GW) nuclear power plants, is demanding that the US allow uranium enrichment, according to the South Korean government and the nuclear power industry on Friday. If the US accepts this, Saudi Arabia has reportedly conveyed its intention to entrust the construction of the nuclear power plant to South Korea, an ally of the US. 

If the enrichment of uranium, the raw material of nuclear power plants, exceeds 90%, it is usually believed that it has secured the ability to develop nuclear weapons. 

South Korea, Russia and China are among the candidates for the Saudi nuclear power plant order. Russia, which is waging a war in Ukraine, is considered to have been virtually excluded from the candidate list of candidates. Therefore, the competition for orders is a two-way race between Korea and China.

Saudi Arabia plans to select a preferred bidder by the end of this year to finalize the selection of a nuclear power plant operator. Saudi Arabia is reportedly hoping for South Korea, which has already proven its construction capabilities at the Baraka nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. 

TWO WAY RACE BETWEEN S.KOREA AND CHINA

It is also attractive that nuclear power plants can be built the cheapest, safest and fastest by Korea. However, since Korea has a nuclear power plant alliance with the US, it is not easy to sign a contract with Saudi Arabia independently without the consent of the US.

In this regard, Saudi Arabia is considering China as another candidate to entrust the construction of nuclear power plants. It is a nightmare for the US that Saudi Arabia chooses China, not South Korea, as its nuclear power plant partner. This is because it is highly likely that Saudi Arabia has agreed with China on a package deal called "construction of nuclear power plants + transfer of uranium enrichment technology."

Experts say that Saudi Arabia's mention of the Korea-U.S. nuclear power plant alliance in closed-door negotiations with the US also implies that it will leave the construction of nuclear power plants to China if it is not allowed to enrich uranium.

"If uranium enrichment is not allowed, Saudi Arabia's strategy is to start nuclear armament with China. Saudi Arabia has a strong will to protect itself from Iranian threats," said Park Hyun-do, a professor at the Euro-MENA Institute at Sogang University. 

UNITED STATES TO APPEASE SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia has also abandoned its US unilateralist line in the diplomatic field and is engaged in diplomacy with China, which has emerged as the US' biggest competitor. It is a strategy to increase Saudi Arabia's value by attracting China, a thorn in the side of the US.

As the situation turns like this, the US is trying to appease Saudi Arabia. This is because the US cannot allow Saudi Arabia, the leader of Sunni Islam, to be on the same boat with China.

In terms of South Korea's position alone, the best scenario is for the US to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, and for Saudi Arabia and Iran to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) side by side. If the two countries join the NPT, they cannot have nuclear weapons, and they must be constantly inspected for nuclear assets. However, if Iran and Saudi Arabia accept the NPT membership, the US will also have a justification to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium.

It is the worst scenario for both South Korea and the US that the US fails to properly conclude consultations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Saudi Arabia chooses China. If Saudi Arabia chooses a Chinese nuclear power plant, it is likely to move toward nuclear development under China's acquiescence. In this case, the situation in the Middle East is expected to fluctuate once again, emerging as a fierce battleground for the US-China conflict.

Write to Ji-Hoon Lee and Han-Shin Park at lizi@hankyung.com